Given the
performance so far this year for most U.S. equity markets, investors that
typically place their monies in traditional U.S. equities have not had a
whole lot to be excited about. In fact, the term "apprehensive"
may describe the confidence level of many investors of this type. The
S&P 500 Index returned only 4.91% for 2005. The Dow Jones Industrial
Average and the NASDAQ Composite Index also exhibited poor performance,
returning -0.61% and 2.13% respectively. However, let us keep things in
perspective. The U.S. Stock Market’s returns while positive is nothing
to be excited about especially, given to the potential risks and
volatility. In this type of market environment, where should individuals
invest their assets to achieve higher returns?
Astute investors may turn to alternative investment strategies such as
Lower Volatility Portfolios, managed futures, complex derivative
instruments, Timber, Commodities, REITS, and various types of hedge funds
to seek larger returns. However, the amount of investment knowledge
necessary in order to invest in some of these higher level strategies with
the exception of the Lower Volatility Portfolios may not be so attractive
to investors, many of whom are conservative by nature. Some traditional
investors who like investing their monies in traditional U.S. equities may
want to develop a second alternative, which is maintaining a high level of
cash within their portfolios.
Maintaining a high level of cash may not necessarily be such a bad
idea. With short-term interest rates on the rise, and long-term interest
rates for the most part remaining relatively stable, at least for now as
the yield curve stands, short-term debt (money market-like) instruments
have been providing more attractive returns than most other types of fixed
income investments. On December 13, 2005, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed)
had raised the federal funds interest rate, which represents the rate
banks are charged for short-term overnight lending to other banks to 4.25%
which was the 13th straight 25 basis point increase since May
of 2004. In addition, there does not appear to be an end in sight to the
level the Fed is willing to raise the short-term federal funds rate. In
fact, thirty-day federal fund futures contracts continued to sell at
higher interest rate levels than what the federal funds rate is currently
at. In looking ahead at futures contracts for January and February, in
which, contracts are selling with interest rates bidding at 4.270 and
4.485 respectively.
Given the recent increases in short-term interest rates as well as the
future expectations of continuous raises still to come, investors who do
not want to consider some of the more advanced investment strategies may
find value by maintaining a larger percentage of their portfolios in cash.
The common investment vehicle utilized as a cash equivalent is a money
market mutual fund. These funds are composed of a variety of short-term,
highly liquid debt instruments in which average maturities usually come
due within 6 months or less. Short-term U.S. Government Securities, high
quality corporate commercial paper, short-term repurchase agreements,
reverse repurchase agreements, federal fund futures contracts, and
Eurodollar futures contracts are typical securities utilized by money
market funds. High levels of trading activity occur on a daily basis in
order to maintain adequate liquidity so that investors can convert their
position in money market funds into cash immediately upon request.
Other investments that can be used as cash equivalents include
certificates of deposit (CD’s), bank money market funds and U.S. Saving
Bonds. Some banks are even offering CD’s that adjust their interest
rates upward on a quarterly or semi-annual basis.
Despite the concerns of investors in regard to maintaining a larger
cash position relative to assets that have displayed larger historical
returns, money market funds have provided attractive yields recently. Most
of the debt instruments previously mentioned are yielding in the 3.50%
4.50% range. In addition, federal fund futures contracts as well as
Eurodollar futures contracts are both selling at discounts, which given
the rise in short-term interest rates, have been increasing the total
return on both contract types. With yields currently rising, the yield on
the overall portfolio is enhanced. By maintaining the position in 9 money
market portfolio, investors have been receiving more attractive yields,
ranging from a minimum of 2.75% up to 3.75% and in some cases, even more
3.75%.
While 2.75% to 3.75% may not seem attractive to some investors, it is
an attractive yield compared to most of the major market indices’ recent
performance, especially when you add in the volatility factor. As
mentioned previously, the S&P 500 Index had returned only 4.91% in
2005. If you take away the volatility of the S&P 500 index and can
provide returns that are nearly equal or in some cases better, money
market portfolios have suddenly turned into a much more attractive
investment. As a result, maintaining cash in one’s portfolio and not
taking on the volatility of the equity markets provides a safer and in
some cases, more attractive investment opportunity for investors,
especially when interest rates are expected to rise indefinitely. However,
with money market portfolios providing yields greater than what they were
just a little over a year and a half ago, before the Fed began raising the
federal funds rate in 25 basis point increments up to 4.25%, we believe
that money market mutual funds are a somewhat attractive and safe
environment for investors to maintain at least a small portion of their
investments until most equity securities decrease in value to attractive
valuations (approximately a 30% decrease would provide some opportunity
for better future returns in equities.) Risk-Controlled Investing’s Lower
Volatility Portfolios have been developed behind a "Margin of
Safety" concept. While these types of portfolios don’t require even
small money market fund balances, most investors that do not invest in
this manner and instead utilize a traditional domestic stock and bond mix
should invest at least a substantial portion of their portfolio in a money
market position to maintain principal. Over the long run they will be
substantially better off than if they had taken on the high volatility of
being in the stock market. This strategy may not prevent losses, but it
could be an effective method of minimizing them.